Consistency in road-maps for energy transition

Energy transition

Road-maps for energy transition

Topsector Energy

The Topsector Energy is working on the transition to an affordable, reliable and sustainable energy system in the Netherlands, which requires innovations and system changes in all kinds of areas.

TwynstraGudde, together with the Topsector Energy and the consortia involved, has developed and applied a road-map methodology for the system integration programme.


Fully sustainable in 2050

The goal of the Energy Topsector is a fully sustainable energy supply by 2050 with an 80 to 95 percent CO2 reduction compared to 1990. This goal is in line with national and European agreements and is the standard for various Top Consortia for Knowledge and Innovation (TKIs). They are developing parts of the energy system of the future. They are also implementing a system integration programme with three themes for knowledge and innovation: heat systems, conversion & storage and management of the energy system. This programme calls for a research agenda.

Road-maps for system integration

Commissioned by the Topsector Energy, three consortia have developed a road-map in these areas that forms the basis for the requested research agenda. The Topsector Energy has asked TwynstraGudde, together with the consortia, to set up and apply a road-map methodology that ensures that the three road-maps are designed uniformly.

The future sends us on our way

For this project we have formed a team of specialists in the field of energy transition and road-mapping. This team developed the methodology in consultation with the three consortia and refined it step by step, enabling us to keep pace with the substantive developments in the consortia. The methodology is aimed at getting a grip on the uncertain future and organising the discussion about it: What are the beckoning perspectives, which potential pressure points will we encounter along the way and what should or can we do now? What first meaningful steps do we need to take?

Multiple viewing

We start with several realistic scenarios for 2050. These scenarios are challenging and help to identify crucial pressure points. A key part of this is ‘multiple viewing’. This is important, given that the energy transition is not just a technical issue. It also involves spatial integration, social and societal impact, economic effects and administrative and legal issues. From the future, we work towards the present and identify pressure points that lead to research questions. The method’s success depends on its application. We have worked together with the consortia on a clear application of the methodology.

The result: insight into consistency

The result is that the three road-maps are mutually comparable in design, even though the themes are different and have been developed separately by three consortia. We have translated the results for each road-map into a visualisation. The three visualisations together show the structure of the road-map at a glance: What are the visions of the future, what are the crucial pressure points along the way and what does the resulting research agenda look like? The uniformity and visual presentation of the road-maps provide more insight into the relationship between future scenarios, pressure points and research agendas. On 5 July 2018, the road-maps were presented by the Energy Topsector in collaboration with the three consortia.

Why TwynstraGudde?

TwynstraGudde’s consultants have knowledge of the energy transition and experience with road-mapping. We can make the connection between the methodology and the task in hand. Moreover, our independent position allows us to facilitate the connection between the various parties in order to arrive at a uniform approach.

Another example of using this methodology is for a private client that is developing long-term scenarios on energy demand. Sustainability plays an important role. Together with our international partners, TwynstraGudde developed a picture of the impact of sustainable transport on the role of the private client in 2050. Read the case.